Strait of Hormuz standoff pushes oil above $90, TTF up 40%

Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal from Iraq that the Trump administration helped broker, saying the deal fails to address control of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran said it will not accept a "temporary deal."

The rejection leaves little room for negotiation ahead of the weekend. The same pattern played out in May before both sides agreed to a ceasefire in June. Iran's strategy is to stall and extract concessions without moving on the nuclear front, analysts said.

Ship traffic through the strait has dropped to roughly three vessel transits per day this week, according to Kpler data. LNG tanker crossings have been zero since July 16. The strait has been effectively closed since July 20.

WTI crude rose above $90 a barrel this week, up more than 30% this month and the highest in six weeks. Dutch TTF natural gas futures surged to the highest since March, up over 40% since the end of June.

The disruption may spread to the Red Sea. The Houthis have started targeting vessels linked to Saudi Arabia or bound for the port of Jeddah, shippers said. If that intensifies, the oil market faces a deeper supply squeeze after depleting inventories through the spring on hopes of a summer resolution.