Stablecoins clear $1.79T record settlement – Is market bottom in sight?

The macro backdrop adds another layer. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 2.25% in June, its strongest monthly gain in a stretch. A strengthening dollar makes dollar-pegged stablecoins more attractive for cross-border settlement, which could lift transaction volume without adding new liquidity. It also encourages capital to leave crypto for dollar-denominated assets directly. The $8 billion stablecoin outflow in June is consistent with that shift.

Some Layer 1 networks are capturing the settlement flow. Toncoin's native stablecoin supply rose 8% in a week to $810 million, a small figure against $1.79 trillion in total volume but a signal that networks are competing for the settlement business.

The broader market ended June down 18%, the largest monthly decline since February. That creates another disconnect: record stablecoin usage alongside a risk-off exit. The July supply data will show whether outflows are accelerating or reversing. If the market cap of USDT and USDC keeps sliding while transaction volumes stay elevated, the velocity interpretation gains weight. A recovery in supply would point to new money entering the system.