
Analysts warn the SpaceX IPO may trigger capital rotation out of crypto as tokenized products draw $385M in open interest. The real test for Bitcoin liquidity comes at listing.
SpaceX is seeking to raise $75 billion in an IPO that would value the rocket company at $1.77 trillion, one of the largest public offerings in history. The size of the capital raise has some crypto analysts worried about a rotation out of digital assets.
Spencer Hallarn, Global Head of OTC Trading at GSR, said the IPO will require a large amount of capital and that crypto could serve as a source of liquidity for many investors. Jeff Park, an adviser at Bitwise, echoed the concern. K33's Vetle Lunde added that demand for upcoming IPOs may already be placing short-term pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Crypto markets are already pricing SpaceX exposure. Tokenized SpaceX perpetual futures on exchanges including Hyperliquid, Binance and OKX trade near $155, above the expected IPO price of $135. Open interest on these products reached $385 million, with cumulative volume of $2.7 billion, data from Talos shows.
Bitget expanded its tokenized SpaceX offering from $3 million to $13 million after strong demand. The subscription increase signals growing appetite for blockchain-based access to traditional equity markets, even though the amount is small relative to the IPO's size.
The capital rotation thesis has counterarguments. Some traders note that Bitcoin's liquidity has deepened since previous large IPOs, potentially absorbing outflows without major price damage. Others point out that the tokenized products themselves keep capital within the crypto ecosystem rather than sending it outside.
Hallarn said the net effect depends on whether investors use new fiat capital to buy tokenized SpaceX or sell existing crypto holdings. If the latter, the IPO could boost crypto volumes through related trading activity rather than draining them.
The SpaceX IPO is expected to price in the coming weeks. Until then, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain sensitive to shifts in risk appetite or liquidity allocation, particularly as crypto market depth continues to evolve.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.