SpaceX perpetual futures have generated $2.6B in volume since May 30, pulling speculative capital away from altcoins as Bitcoin and Ethereum hold institutional interest.
Alpha Score of 57 reflects moderate overall profile with weak value, moderate quality, strong sentiment. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
Crypto traders have poured more than $2.6 billion into SpaceX perpetual futures since May 30, according to CoinGlass data. Over $1 billion of that volume came in the past 72 hours alone. Open interest sits near $363 million, making the pre-IPO contracts one of the largest trading events the crypto market has ever seen.
The contracts, available on Hyperliquid and Binance, let speculators bet on SpaceX's valuation before the stock starts trading on a public exchange. The futures market currently implies a share price near $162, roughly 17% above the reported IPO price of $135. Early in the hype cycle, prices briefly touched $220 before pulling back.
Not everyone expects a strong debut. Arkham Intelligence flagged a trader, "wenyu8888888," who opened a $5.7 million 2x leveraged short position on SPCX. That bet is one of the largest bearish positions tied to the IPO. The trade reflects a growing view that SpaceX's premium valuation could fade once actual shares hit the market.
The valuation debate has drawn public skepticism. Veteran short seller Jim Chanos and Arvy co-founder Thierry Borgeat have both questioned SpaceX's $1.75 trillion price tag. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens is even more cautious: he values the company at just $63 per share and assigns only a 7% chance that Starship becomes commercially viable. Senator Elizabeth Warren has also raised concerns about governance and Elon Musk's super-voting share structure.
While capital flows into SpaceX-related products, many altcoins are losing ground. James Altucher of TA Synergies argues that a structural issue plagues smaller tokens: projects can keep growing without passing value to token holders. With inflation running above 4% and the SpaceX IPO absorbing demand, speculative money has moved away from altcoins, he said.
In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum continue drawing institutional interest. BlackRock is pushing forward with its Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, and Ethereum's daily active addresses have climbed above 1.3 million. The same capital that might have rotated into altcoins is instead chasing the SpaceX narrative and the relative safety of large-cap crypto.
The SPCX futures market will remain active until the actual IPO settles. Whether the implied premium of 17% holds or collapses will depend on how retail and institutional demand line up when trading begins.
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