Shkreli Sees Meta Buying Anthropic as AI IPO Window Tightens

Martin Shkreli predicted Thursday that Meta Platforms will end up buying Anthropic in what he called a "down exit" – an acquisition at a discount to the startup’s peak private valuation. He caveated the call as "low conviction," but the timing is worth attention.

Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 1, just months after a $65 billion Series H round that valued the company at nearly $965 billion. The IPO would pit it against OpenAI and SpaceX for institutional capital in a 2026 window that is already crowded. At a trillion-dollar price tag, public buyers may balk.

The public offering also forces Anthropic to disclose margins and cost structures it has kept private. That transparency could amplify scrutiny of a business that already faces twin pressures: user backlash and government curbs.

Users on X have accused Anthropic of "stealth nerfing" Claude’s capabilities and criticized a policy change that extends data retention to five years for model training. One tech commentator warned employees that leadership’s recent decisions are "titanic f***ups that pose serious risks to both your technical pole position and your bags."

On the regulatory side, the Pentagon recently gave Anthropic a supply chain risk designation, temporarily freezing new Defense Department contracts. The move adds to questions about revenue sustainability from government clients.

Anthropic also called for an industry-wide development pause, a stance that has divided the AI community. Some argue the company’s safety-first posture is damping its competitive edge.

Meta, Amazon, and Google are all deeply tied to Anthropic’s infrastructure. Amazon and Google have invested heavily. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said his company is helping finance AI chips for Anthropic, OpenAI and other developers. Meta, by contrast, has built its own AI models (Llama) and has no direct investment in Anthropic. A "down exit" would give Meta access to Anthropic’s technology and talent at a distressed price.

Meta’s Alpha Score sits at 57, reflecting moderate sentiment. Amazon scores 52, Alphabet 70. None of the three partners look likely to force a deal soon. META stock page, GOOGL stock page, AMZN stock page

Shkreli framed the prediction as a hedge. "Low conviction," he wrote. That caveat matters more than the specific forecast. The scenario assumes Anthropic’s IPO fails to attract enough demand, forcing a sale. It also assumes Meta is willing to absorb a company that has publicly sparred with Big Tech over safety culture.

For now, Anthropic’s path remains tied to the IPO schedule. No date has been set for the S-1 to go effective. The next concrete marker is the public release of its financials.