Senate schedule skipped CLARITY Act vote Monday, leaving five days before August recess. Thune wants a floor vote, but disputes over enforcement and ethics keep a date off the books. Galaxy Research cut odds to 30%.
Alpha Score of 37 reflects weak overall profile with weak momentum, weak value, poor quality, moderate sentiment.
The Senate's Monday floor schedule did not include the CLARITY Act, leaving the crypto market structure bill just five days to clear the chamber before lawmakers leave for the August recess.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said he intends to bring the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to the floor before the break, a move that would force senators to go on record even if the legislation cannot clear the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster. A crowded pre-recess calendar and unresolved disputes over enforcement powers, decentralized finance, and anti-money laundering rules have kept a firm date off the books.
The bill's national-security rationale got a boost this week when former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who joined Coinbase's Global Advisory Council in 2023, called the CLARITY Act a national security imperative. Esper warned the current window may be the last real chance to pass it. Senator Mark Warner has separately conditioned his support on closing what he sees as gaps around decentralized finance.
Lobbying has intensified alongside the shrinking timeline. Grayscale urged Senate leaders to hold a vote before the August recess, warning that further delay threatens U.S. competitiveness in digital assets. Stand With Crypto said supporters had contacted lawmakers one million times urging passage before the Aug. 7 break. Strategy and its chairman Michael Saylor threw their support behind the bill last week, joining Coinbase and Grayscale in publicly pressing for passage.
Opposition runs on multiple fronts. New York Attorney General Letitia James urged Congress to strengthen cryptocurrency regulation, citing FBI reports of more than $11 billion in crypto-related losses. She argued the pending CLARITY Act would weaken state enforcement against digital asset scams. A Senate Banking Committee minority staff analysis renewed Democratic objections that the bill preserves pathways for President Trump to continue profiting from crypto ventures. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has pushed back hard against critics, demanding Senate action now.
Galaxy Research cut its estimated probability of CLARITY Act enactment in 2026 from 50% to 30%, reflecting the deadline pressure. The odds have fallen further after the Monday schedule omission. Another report warned that the delay risks ceding U.S. leadership in digital assets, a point Haridopolos emphasized in his own warning.
If the Senate fails to act by Friday, the CLARITY Act will not return to the floor until senators reconvene on September 14. That pushes the debate into a compressed midterm-year calendar where crypto legislation could get crowded out by other priorities. The bill now faces the risk of getting lost in midterm politics entirely, leaving crypto firms operating under the current patchwork of SEC and CFTC guidance for months longer.
The Senate's next scheduled session after this week is September 14. Bill supporters have five days to change the schedule.
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