The Senate won't advance the crypto market-structure bill until mid-September. Polymarket bettors now see a 25% chance of passage this year, down from 82% in February.
Alpha Score of 37 reflects weak overall profile with poor momentum, weak value, poor quality, strong sentiment.
The US Senate will not advance crypto market-structure legislation until it returns from its August recess in mid-September.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) filed for cloture on the Clarity Act on Friday, a procedural step that sets up potential floor action next month. The Senate broke for recess the following day.
The bill would put most digital assets under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an agency industry groups generally view as more accommodating than the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The legislation has drawn opposition from big banks and their trade associations. They argue it could threaten financial stability and weaken bank deposits as stablecoins gain ground.
Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong called the lack of progress this month "disappointing."
"Congress still has an important job to do. A clear federal market structure law will unlock more investment, more innovation, and more jobs in the United States while giving consumers the protections they deserve," Armstrong said. "Voters are watching closely to see who helps finish this, and who is a blocker. We're closer than we've ever been. Let's finish the job in September."
Polymarket bettors have soured on the bill's chances this year. Banking opposition hardened. Odds of passage in 2025 have fallen from a high of 82% in February to 25% now.
Thune's cloture filing means the bill could get a vote when the Senate reconvenes. The procedural move alone does not guarantee floor time. September is shaping up as a crowded month, with government funding deadlines and the annual appropriations process competing for the Senate calendar.
The Clarity Act's path through the House is also unclear. The House Financial Services Committee has held hearings on market structure, no companion bill has moved to the floor.
Thune has not said when the Senate might take up the bill after reconvening. The September session is expected to run until the end of the month, when the fiscal year ends.
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