
Grayscale's Pandl says Senate odds are low for CLARITY passage this year. The September 15 cloture vote needs seven Democrats or independents to back it.
The CLARITY Act looks unlikely to clear the Senate this year. A crowded floor schedule and the approach of midterm elections are working against the crypto market structure bill, Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said.
Failure to pass the bill would not immediately hit Bitcoin's store-of-value role or the major blockchain networks, Pandl said. The crypto industry has run for nearly 17 years without comprehensive US market structure legislation.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed, and a vote is set for September 15 at 2:15 p.m. ET when the chamber returns from recess. The vote would only limit debate, not approve the CLARITY Act itself. Republicans hold 53 seats, and a motion to proceed needs at least seven Democrats or independents to back it.
A separate bipartisan ethics proposal tied to the legislation remains unresolved. Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego have been working on language that would let state attorneys general enforce restrictions on officials issuing digital assets and require Donald Trump to divest from crypto businesses. Trump has not approved the agreement.
Senator Elizabeth Warren has called for the bill to be rejected, saying it does not provide enough protection for investors or the financial system.
Grayscale expects the SEC and other US regulators to keep writing rules covering institutional custody, banking access, staking, crypto exchange-traded products and tokenized securities even without the CLARITY Act. The bill itself would set clearer rules for digital asset intermediaries and tokenized securities. Pandl's concern is that agency-level rules are narrower than legislation, which could push some companies to operate in countries with clearer crypto regulations.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe expects the September vote to refocus attention on DeFi and Ethereum. He said the event could create a "buy the rumor, sell the news" setup as traders position ahead of the vote.
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