Senate Clarity Act Vote Set for Sept. 15, 60 Votes Needed

The U.S. Senate is scheduled to vote on the Clarity Act on Sept. 15, the first floor test for a digital-asset market-structure bill that has already cleared the House and the Senate Banking Committee. A successful cloture vote would require 60 senators to advance the legislation to full debate, setting up a high-stakes procedural hurdle for the crypto industry's most ambitious regulatory reform effort in years.

Prediction markets see the bill's odds slipping. Contracts now price the probability of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 at 24.5%, down from 28% a day earlier but up from 18% a week ago, according to Vera data. Traders said the dip had no single catalyst – no senator announced opposition, no White House statement landed. The move looked like position trimming after last week's run, several traders said.

The bill would draw a line between Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission jurisdiction over digital assets, an issue that has dragged through multiple Congresses without resolution. Under the current text, the CFTC would get primary authority over tokens deemed commodities, while the SEC would oversee tokens that function as securities. Exchanges and issuers have long pushed for clear rules of the road, arguing the current patchwork of enforcement actions stifles innovation.