Sen. Tim Scott says a CLARITY Act vote is still possible before recess, but Polymarket odds sit at 17%. Hawley and Tillis oppose; White House ethics provision remains a holdup.
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Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott said a first vote on the CLARITY Act could still happen before the August recess, even as prediction markets put the bill's passage this year at 17%.
"We have the time to get it done," Scott told FOX Business. He said Majority Leader John Thune has the opportunity to schedule the vote, and that the Senate may stay past the current two-day window before recess. Thune's communications director, Ryan Wrasse, said on X that pending items "could take us into next week" if no time agreement is reached, and that conversations on the crypto bill and a budget resolution continue.
Polymarket data shows a 17% chance President Trump signs the bill into law by year-end. That is down from 27% in late July, when the odds sank after the Senate failed to file cloture before a weekend session.
Scott accused Democrats of "shifting goalposts" whenever Republicans make headway. Senator Cynthia Lummis echoed that, saying if the CLARITY Act dies, Democrats will be the reason. Scott said he expects Democratic votes once all Republicans are on board.
Not all Republicans are there yet. Senator Josh Hawley said he will oppose the bill over concerns that stablecoin yields could trigger deposit flight from community banks. Senator Thom Tillis said he will vote no unless the bipartisan ethics provision – co-authored with Senator Ruben Gallego – is included. The White House has not yet signed off on that provision, which remains the main holdup.
For the crypto sector, the odds matter. The CLARITY Act would create a federal framework for stablecoin issuance and custody, giving issuers a clear path to compliance. A failure to pass this year would leave the U.S. without a stablecoin rulebook, pushing issuers toward state-level licenses or offshore jurisdictions. The delay already risks ceding U.S. leadership in crypto innovation, as Senator Scott warned.
Thune has not yet filed for cloture on the bill. The next concrete marker is whether he files that motion before the recess. If the Senate stays into next week, as Wrasse suggested, there is still a narrow window for a vote. If not, the bill's odds of passage in 2026 – already low – could fall further.
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