Schwab Survey Puts Retirement Gap at 8x for 55-Year-Olds

Charles Schwab's 2025 401(k) Participant Survey puts the retirement "magic number" at $1.6 million, down from $1.8 million in 2024. The median balance for participants aged 55 to 64 is $205,341.

The gap between those figures is roughly 7.8 times. For Schwab, that persistent shortfall supports demand for its retirement planning services and advisory accounts. The company's target-date funds and managed portfolios are designed for savers trying to close that distance.

Schwab manages $9.4 trillion in client assets. The survey is self-reported, based on responses from 401(k) participants. It reflects perceptions as much as actual savings trajectories. The numbers have been consistent across recent years: the magic number has hovered near $1.6 million, while median balances for pre-retirees have stayed below $250,000.

AlphaScala's proprietary data gives SCHW an Alpha Score of 59, labeled Moderate. The score reflects the stock's current risk-reward balance in a market where rate expectations are shifting. The retirement gap is a structural tailwind for Schwab's asset-gathering business. Near-term earnings face pressure from net interest margin compression when the Fed holds rates.

The decline in the magic number from $1.8 million to $1.6 million suggests Americans may be recalibrating expectations after two years of equity gains and softer inflation data. The survey did not detail the drivers of the change.