SkyBridge's Scaramucci sees 40% odds for the Clarity Act, saying Democrats block it out of 'dislike' for Trump. Novogratz disagrees, calling it an ethics negotiation with room for compromise.
Alpha Score of 54 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, poor value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said Monday he sees roughly a two-in-five chance the Clarity Act becomes law. Speaking on the "Wolf of All Streets" podcast, he argued Democrats will block the bill out of "dislike" for President Donald Trump rather than on the merits of the legislation.
Scaramucci said Democrats would do everything possible to stop initiatives Trump supports, including the crypto bill, whose passage could "monetarily benefit" the president. He keeps his "fingers crossed" but remains skeptical.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz pushed back on that framing. He described the impasse as a live negotiation over ethics rules that prevent elected officials from profiting from crypto while in office. "There is a very fair compromise out there that both sides should agree on," Novogratz said. "Each side still has a few inches to give."
Scaramucci said he wants Novogratz to be right. He pointed to Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), who is leading a group of Democrats seeking stricter ethics provisions, as someone who would oppose the bill because he personally "dislikes" Trump. "Which is where Washington is right now rather than doing what's right for the people," Scaramucci said.
The updated draft of the Clarity Act already prohibits federal officials, including the president and vice president, from "issuing or sponsoring" digital assets for profit while in office. Scaramucci said the new ethics rules are not perfect. They are still better than leaving the industry completely unregulated, which would invite "Wild West" labels.
Seven Senate Democrats who spent months negotiating the bill said in a joint statement that the latest text "falls short" on ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, and conflicts of interest.
Polymarket prices the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 at 37% as of this writing.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has argued the Clarity Act would close financial regulatory gaps that allowed North Korea's Lazarus Group to steal crypto. Galaxy Digital warned that Senate leaders have just days to secure votes before the August recess.
Scaramucci said the bill's odds have slipped from where they stood earlier this year. "I want Mike to be right," he said, referring to Novogratz's optimism. "I've been in Washington long enough to know when politics trumps policy."
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