Saudi 2026 growth forecast cut to 3.1% by World Bank

The World Bank lowered its forecast for Saudi Arabia's economic growth in 2026 to 3.1%, a drop of 0.4 percentage points from its January projection, the institution said in its June Global Economic Prospects report. Growth is expected to accelerate to 4.9% in 2027, then moderate to 3.7% the following year.

The downward revision reflects disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which the bank said had caused severe energy-market dislocations. Brent crude is now expected to average $94 a barrel in 2026, roughly 36% above 2025 levels. That assumes the worst of those disruptions ease by July.

Saudi Arabia's slowdown is likely to be less severe than elsewhere in the region. The bank attributed that to the Kingdom's ability to reroute oil exports through the East-West crude pipeline, a 1,200-kilometer link from the Eastern Province to the Red Sea. The pipeline provides a bypass for supply that would otherwise transit the Strait of Hormuz.

The 2027 acceleration the bank forecasts implies a pickup in non-oil activity as well, though the report did not break down GDP components. The next scheduled update from the World Bank on Saudi growth will come with its January 2027 outlook.