Sandisk Supercycle Could Peak by Mid-2026, Analyst Warns

The AI-driven memory boom that has lifted Sandisk since its February 2025 listing may not stretch as far as the market expects, a Seeking Alpha analyst argued. The current upcycle could peak by the middle of next year, when new supply from competitors arrives and demand growth begins to slow.

Memory cycles tend to be short. The average NAND upcycle from trough to peak has lasted about 18 months since 2010, according to industry tracker TrendForce, which the analyst cited. The current run started in early 2025, putting a potential peak in the second half of 2026. Some cycles have ended sooner when supply caught up faster than demand.

Sandisk's revenue is almost entirely tied to memory pricing. Gross margins expand when NAND and DRAM prices rise and contract when they fall. A peak in the cycle would compress margins and slow earnings growth, likely leading to multiple compression on the stock, the analyst said.

The biggest risk comes from the supply side. Samsung and SK Hynix have announced capacity expansions for high-bandwidth memory and NAND. Micron is also adding capacity. Those additions will come online through 2026. If demand from AI data centers plateaus as training workloads shift to inference, the market could tip into oversupply.

A faster-than-expected ramp in AI inference demand could extend the cycle. So could supply discipline from manufacturers who delay new fabs. Sandisk's own product mix shift toward enterprise SSDs could provide a buffer if consumer NAND weakens, the analyst noted.

The worst-case scenario is a simultaneous demand slowdown from hyperscalers and a wave of new supply. That would mirror the 2022 downturn, when memory prices fell 40% in six months. Sandisk's stock would likely re-rate lower in that environment.

The company next reports quarterly earnings on July 30. The analyst said the guidance on pricing and demand will offer the clearest signal on whether the supercycle still has room to run.