Bernstein sees 78% upside for Robinhood as tokenization and Rothera exchange drive new revenue. The brokerage cites $12B in chain volume and $200M in Earn deposits.
Bernstein has kept its Outperform rating on Robinhood Markets with a $160 price target, pointing to the company's expansion beyond trading into tokenization and market infrastructure.
In a note to clients, Bernstein said Robinhood's latest crypto products – Robinhood Chain, tokenized stocks, Bitstamp and Robinhood Earn – are opening new growth avenues outside its traditional brokerage business. The analysts argued those products support the long-term investment case.
Robinhood shares closed at $89.84 on Wednesday, the level Bernstein used in calculating about 78% upside to its unchanged $160 target. The stock later fell 3.6% to close at $86.60 on Thursday, implying roughly 85% upside based on the firm's target price.
Among the products highlighted, Bernstein pointed to Robinhood Chain as one of the company's largest crypto initiatives since entering tokenization. The blockchain has processed more than $12 billion in decentralized exchange volume and completed over 150 million transactions since launch, the analysts said.
Robinhood Earn has accumulated more than $200 million in customer deposits, the note said. Tokenized U.S. stocks are now available through Robinhood Wallet in more than 120 countries, extending the company's reach beyond its core brokerage platform.
Bernstein said the latest developments continue a strategy Robinhood has been building throughout the year. In June, the firm argued that prediction markets had become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing businesses during the FIFA World Cup, projecting the segment could generate $586 million in revenue in 2026 compared with an estimated $150 million in 2025.
At the time, Bernstein estimated prediction markets could account for about 17% of Robinhood's transaction-based revenue and around 10% of total company revenue next year, supported by higher customer activity during major sporting events.
Attention in the latest report also turned to Rothera, Robinhood's exchange, which Bernstein said has continued expanding since going live in June.
According to the analysts, Rothera has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts so far, including 2.1 billion during the second quarter alone. The exchange generated $17 million in second-quarter revenue and has become the third-largest prediction market exchange in the United States, Bernstein said.
The research note said Robinhood expects more prediction-market activity to migrate onto Rothera over time while continuing to distribute event contracts from third-party exchanges. Bernstein added that management also sees the exchange as a potential business-to-business platform for other Futures Commission Merchants in the future.
The brokerage has previously argued that controlling more of the trading stack allows consumer platforms to retain a larger share of transaction economics. In a June research report, Bernstein said companies across crypto, brokerages and sports betting are increasingly combining brokerage, exchange and clearing functions instead of depending on outside providers.
Robinhood's ownership of Rothera was presented as one example of that trend, alongside similar moves by Coinbase and DraftKings to build or acquire more of their own trading infrastructure.
Beyond trading volumes, Bernstein said Robinhood's strategy increasingly resembles a financial infrastructure business rather than a brokerage focused only on crypto transactions.
The analysts grouped Robinhood Chain, Bitstamp, Robinhood Earn and tokenized stocks as complementary products that could diversify revenue over time. The report follows Bernstein's earlier research on Coinbase, where the firm argued the exchange was also expanding beyond crypto trading through tokenized equities, prediction markets, blockchain infrastructure and artificial intelligence tools.
While the companies are pursuing different strategies, Bernstein has consistently argued that digital asset platforms are competing to become broader financial marketplaces by adding infrastructure, custody, tokenization and regulated market products alongside traditional crypto services.
According to the analysts, ownership of exchange infrastructure may become increasingly valuable as companies seek to keep more execution and clearing revenue within their own platforms instead of relying on external providers.
Despite maintaining its positive outlook, Bernstein outlined several risks that could affect Robinhood's business.
The brokerage said changes affecting payment for order flow remain an important consideration because the model continues to contribute meaningfully to Robinhood's brokerage operations.
Bernstein also noted that U.S. regulation surrounding digital assets continues to evolve. The analysts said the Securities and Exchange Commission has historically taken a strict approach toward crypto trading platforms, while uncertainty over whether certain digital assets should be classified as securities has yet to be fully resolved.
The report added that the digital asset industry remains in an early stage of development, meaning future regulatory decisions could influence the pace at which companies introduce new crypto products and expand tokenization services.
Even with those risks, Bernstein maintained that Robinhood's expanding infrastructure business and growing portfolio of tokenized financial products continue to support its Outperform rating and unchanged $160 price target.
Robinhood shares closed at $86.60 on Thursday.
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