Riksbank Minutes Will Test SEK After NOK/SEK Breaks 1.02

The Riksbank releases minutes from last week's policy meeting at 9:30 CET Tuesday, and for traders in the krona and Swedish rates the document is the main event of the session. The meeting was a smaller one with no fresh projections and only a brief monetary policy statement. That makes the minutes the only window into whether the relatively dovish tone of the communique was a consensus view.

Danske Bank analysts said the two key questions are how close Governor Thedéen and board member Seim, who have been the more hawkish members lately, are to a rate hike. The remaining three members – Jansson, Bunge and Hjelm – form the majority. The question there is whether any of them have moved closer to Thedéen and Seim's camp.

The answer will shape expectations for the September meeting, where the bank will update its rate path. The market has priced a roughly 40% chance of a 25-basis-point hike by year-end, according to swap rates. The minutes could shift those odds if the divisions are deeper than assumed.

Sweden's currency has already felt the pressure. NOK/SEK broke above 1.02 for the first time in almost three years on Monday, as the krona weakened across the board. The move reflects both the Riksbank's dovish tilt relative to the Norges Bank and the broader risk-off tone from geopolitical headlines. The new US sanctions campaign against Iran, announced Monday by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, added a fresh layer of uncertainty to markets. Spot gas prices have risen above the ECB's adverse scenario, analysts at Danske Bank said, adding to monetary policy uncertainty in the euro area and indirectly weighing on the krona.