The Fed, BOE and BOJ are all expected to hold this week. Thursday's GDP and PCE data will set the tone for crypto markets ahead of Coinbase and Strategy earnings.
The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are all expected to leave rates unchanged this week. The question for crypto markets is whether the data that crosses the wires before those decisions confirms the case for higher rates or chips away at it.
CME’s FedWatch tool puts the odds of a U.S. rate increase at 33%. Prediction markets are more skeptical at 19%, though that is up from near zero earlier in the month. Gregory Daco, the chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told CBS News that September could be the first meaningful test of the Fed’s stance.
Thursday brings the first real tests: U.S. second-quarter GDP and June Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data. Strong growth paired with sticky inflation would push the dollar higher and lift yields, squeezing crypto prices. A softer print would ease that pressure, at least temporarily.
All 70 economists polled by Reuters expect the BOE to hold at 3.75%. The BOJ is forecast to stay at 1% before potentially raising again later this year.
Crypto-specific events sit alongside the macro calendar. BitMEX will settle 35 derivatives early. FTX will begin distributing roughly $900 million to creditors. Earnings from Robinhood, Coinbase and Strategy next week will offer a read on retail activity and corporate bitcoin holdings.
Binance held roughly 55% of user funds among tracked exchanges and 24% of spot trading volume in early July, drawing net inflows while the broader market saw outflows, according to DefiLlama data.
AlphaScala’s Alpha Score for Coinbase is 35 out of 100, labeled Weak. Strategy’s score is 32, also Weak. Both face headwinds from rising rates but could lift if the macro data shifts dovish. Their earnings reports will be the next major test of that logic.
The Fed’s next rate decision is July 30-31. The data this week will shape the debate leading into that meeting.
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