Putin signed a law licensing crypto exchanges but kept the ban on crypto payments inside Russia. Betting markets put the odds of Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by end-2026 at 2%.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law that creates a licensing system for crypto exchanges and digital depositories but keeps the existing ban on using cryptocurrency for domestic payments, Russian state news agency TASS reported.
The Bank of Russia will serve as the main regulator under the new framework, with a transition period running through July 2027. Licensed intermediaries will be allowed to handle the buying, selling, and storage of digital currencies, TASS said.
Crypto markets took the news as a mixed signal. The regulatory clarity could open the door to more institutional participation, traders said. The continued prohibition on crypto as a domestic payment method, however, may limit retail adoption.
Betting markets reflect the uncertainty. Contracts on Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by Dec. 31, 2026, are pricing in a 2% probability, according to Vera prediction-market data. The odds have edged lower since the law was signed, suggesting traders see the payment ban as a headwind for the kind of retail-driven rally that would push Bitcoin to that level.
The Bank of Russia's implementation timeline and any future changes to the domestic payment rules will shape how the market prices Russian crypto exposure, traders said.
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