Prediction Markets Surge to 5% of Crypto Spot Exchange Volume

Prediction markets now account for nearly 5% of centralized crypto spot exchange volume, up from roughly 1% six months ago. The climb reflects a surge in activity on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Monthly prediction market volumes hit $25.7 billion in March 2026, a 10.6% increase from February. A year earlier, monthly volumes sat at roughly $1.2 billion. That is more than a 20-fold gain in under 12 months.

Centralized crypto spot volumes have held relatively stable in the $1 trillion to $2 trillion-plus monthly range over the same period. The Block now maintains a dashboard tracking the ratio of prediction market to spot exchange volume.

Polymarket and Kalshi have been the primary beneficiaries. Polymarket uses USDC for its trading infrastructure and has carved out a dominant position. Binance has expanded its own prediction market offerings.

CNBC reported that many contracts on both platforms see minimal trading activity. The headline volumes are concentrated in a small number of popular markets. The long tail of contracts often lacks the liquidity needed for efficient price discovery, according to the report.

For traders, the growth creates real opportunities; it also carries caveats. Thin depth in specific contracts can create execution risk despite impressive aggregate volumes, particularly for larger positions, CNBC noted.

The Block's dashboard tracks the ratio of prediction market to spot exchange volume. The measure has risen from roughly 1% six months ago to nearly 5% in March.