
GBP/EUR held near €1.1731 as Bailey pushed back on rate-cut bets. UK political stability after the election is still supporting sterling against a euro weighed by French risk.
The pound held near its strongest level against the euro in a year on Tuesday, even after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey struck a cautious tone on the rate outlook.
GBP/EUR traded at €1.1731, up marginally on the day. The pair has rallied roughly 3% since mid-April, supported by a sharp drop in UK political-risk premiums after the general election delivered a stable majority.
Bailey said the BOE would need to see more evidence that inflation pressures had eased before cutting rates, pushing back against market bets on an August move. The comments did little to dent sterling, which traders said was still being driven by the relative political stability in London versus the uncertainty around France's snap election.
French political risk has weighed on the euro for weeks. The premium investors demand to hold French government bonds over German bunds widened to levels not seen since the euro-zone debt crisis, and the single currency has lagged as a result.
"The UK political backdrop has shifted from a headwind to a tailwind for sterling," said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank. "That shift is still being priced in."
The next test for the pound comes with UK inflation data due Wednesday. A hot print would reinforce the case for the BOE to hold rates steady, while a soft reading would revive bets on an August cut. Either way, the political differential is likely to keep GBP/EUR supported near current levels, Foley said.
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