
GBP/USD held near 1.3366 after Pantheon Macroeconomics said the UK economy is showing surprising resilience despite higher oil prices, though Middle East tensions pose a risk of higher inflation and further BOE tightening.
Sterling traded close to recent highs Monday after Pantheon Macroeconomics said the UK economy is showing surprising resilience to higher oil prices. The pound changed hands near 1.3366 against the dollar.
Renewed Middle East tensions have increased the risk of higher inflation, the consultancy said. That could force the Bank of England to tighten policy further. Pantheon attributed the economy's resilience to a stronger-than-expected service sector and a labor market that has not cracked under the strain of higher energy costs.
Oil prices edged higher on the open as geopolitical risk in the Middle East escalated. For the UK, a net importer of crude, a sustained rally in Brent would feed into the inflation forecasts that the BOE uses to set rates. The central bank has already raised its benchmark rate to 5.25%.
Pantheon's read suggests that Sterling's strength reflects a domestic economy that can absorb the external shock, at least for now. The risk is that a prolonged oil spike changes that calculus, pushing inflation back above target and forcing the BOE into another hike.
For more context on the pair, see the GBP/USD profile and broader forex market analysis.
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