
UK GDP rose 0.4% in May, double forecasts, pushing BOE rate-cut bets lower and keeping GBP/EUR near a 13-month high at €1.1794.
The Pound to Euro exchange rate held just below a 13-month high on Thursday after UK GDP figures came in stronger than expected, reinforcing Sterling's recent run. GBP/EUR traded around €1.1794, little changed on the day.
The UK economy grew 0.4% in May, double the 0.2% consensus estimate, the Office for National Statistics reported. The print followed a flat reading in April and marked the fastest monthly expansion since January. Services output drove the gain, rising 0.3%, while construction jumped 1.9%.
The data gives the Bank of England more room to hold rates steady at its August meeting. Markets had priced in roughly a 50% chance of a cut before the GDP release; that probability edged lower after the numbers landed. A later start to BOE easing would keep the rate differential with the euro zone tilted in Sterling's favour, traders said.
The euro, by contrast, faces its own headwinds. French political uncertainty and a sluggish German industrial sector have capped the single currency's recovery from the June lows. The European Central Bank cut rates in June and markets expect another move in September, which would further widen the spread.
GBP/EUR has rallied from €1.1650 in mid-June to the current level near €1.18. The next resistance sits at the May 2023 high around €1.1850, a level that has held for 14 months. A break above that would open a run at €1.19, though traders noted the pair has failed at that zone twice this year already.
UK consumer confidence data due Friday and the BOE's August 1 rate decision are the next catalysts on the calendar.
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