A Polymarket user wagered $818,130 that the CLARITY Act will not pass by end of 2026. The odds of passage have fallen from 80% to 14% since February.
Alpha Score of 35 reflects weak overall profile with weak momentum, weak value, poor quality, moderate sentiment.
A Polymarket user placed a bet of $818,130 early on Aug. 24 that the CLARITY Act will not become law in the U.S. before the end of 2026. The user, known as VelvetNova27, entered the position at 07:49 UTC when the odds of "no" stood at 77%, according to data from Predictbook compiled by Finbold.
The bet has already gained $82,078 as the odds of passage have fallen further. The probability of the bill passing in 2026 peaked above 80% in February and has dropped since May, hitting a low of 14% on Aug. 24.
The CLARITY Act, a proposed federal bill for digital asset regulation, has gone through several versions. A January draft sparked a public dispute between Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson on one side and Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong on the other. Hoskinson criticized the legislation and the two executives who supported it.
A later version generated less controversy but still failed to secure a vote before the August recess. That missed deadline, combined with the approaching midterm elections, has pushed the odds down, traders on Polymarket said. CFTC Chair Michael Selig pledged to move fast to provide regulatory clarity if Congress does not act.
The next scheduled opportunity for a vote is after the midterms. The $818,130 position remains open with more than four months until the deadline.
Prepared with AlphaScala editorial tooling from the source reporting linked above. Indexable analysis may include a cited Alpha Score value. Publishing checks screen each story before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.