Polymarket sees 78% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026

A rebound in parts of the cryptocurrency market has kept attention on broader risk sentiment, a backdrop that can influence expectations for U.S. monetary policy. On Polymarket, traders marked down the "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" contract, with the leading outcome still pointing to no cuts.

Stellar and Pyth Network extended a rebound even as broader market conditions remained stressed. The gains were an extension of an earlier recovery rather than a fresh breakout. The wider market tone remained pressured, with volatility and uncertainty persisting across the complex.

In Polymarket's ladder for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?", the deepest pricing remains at the front of the curve: "0 (0 bps)" trades at 78.25% Yes versus 21.75% No. The next rung down is sharply discounted, with "1 (25 bps)" at 12.5% Yes / 87.5% No, while "2 (50 bps)" is 3.65% Yes / 96.35% No and "3 (75 bps)" is 3.15% Yes / 96.85% No. Total volume stands at $39,947,855, indicating heavy liquidity despite a steep drop-off in implied probabilities beyond one cut. The current ladder shape implies traders see a narrow distribution centered on zero cuts, with only small marginal demand for multiple-cut scenarios.

Watch whether the gap between "0 (0 bps)" and "1 (25 bps)" continues to compress, and whether volume migrates into the higher-cut strikes ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution date.

Beyond longer-dated rate-cut expectations, Polymarket traders are also focusing on nearer-term catalysts, with 79.5% on "Fed Decision in July?" pricing a "No change" outcome as activity concentrates in the $26,581,859 market. The contract's 8.0 percentage-point move shows how quickly odds can reprice around incoming inflation and labor signals, even as positioning across the platform spreads into other high-volume macro and geopolitical questions.