Polymarket sees 60.5% Fed hold as lawmakers pitch CLARITY Act

On Polymarket, the “Fed Decision in September?” ladder shows “No change” at 60.5%, down 1 percentage point from 61.5%. The contract has $3.56 million in matched volume.

Lawmakers pitched the CLARITY Act as a way to set clearer rules for crypto companies, a report said. The bill's timing coincides with the small shift in rate expectations.

Each rung is a separate Yes/No market. The “25 bps increase” rung trades at 35.5%. Cuts are long shots: “25 bps decrease” at 3.65%, “50+ bps decrease” at 2.15%. The distribution shows traders are debating hold versus a single hike, not multiple cuts.

The July ladder offers a more one-sided picture. “No change” there sits at 94.35% on $70 million in volume. That anchor can influence how the September contract moves.

Away from macro, liquidity concentrates in other event contracts. The “Ballon d'Or Winner 2026” ladder has Lionel Messi leading at 44.55% on $8.6 million in volume.