Crypto▲ Bullish
Polymarket sees 25% Ukraine ceasefire odds after Rubio-Lavrov meet
Polymarket's $14.5M Ukraine ceasefire contract shows only 25% chance of end to war in 2026 as US and Russia meet in Manila. Crypto markets watch for de-escalation signals.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Manila on July 23. Rubio said the US wants to play a "constructive" role in ending the Ukraine war, now in its fifth year. Lavrov repeated that further arms deliveries to Ukraine are unacceptable.
Polymarket, the crypto-native prediction platform, prices a ceasefire by Dec. 31, 2026 at roughly 25%. The contract holds over $14.5 million in trading volume. That crowd with real money at stake expects talks to continue without a breakthrough this year.