Polymarket Odds on Clarity Act Jump to 43% as Trump Backs Ethics Clause

The implied probability that the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026 hit 43% on Polymarket Monday, up from 32% on Friday, its lowest since the prediction market opened in January. The jump followed reports that President Donald Trump had agreed to move forward with an ethics clause that had stalled negotiations on the bill, also known as the crypto asset market structure bill.

Eleanor Terrett, a reporter covering the story, wrote on social media that multiple industry sources said the White House had settled on an ethics package and sent the language to certain Senate Republicans that afternoon. The details of the agreement remained unclear, and no version had been officially published.

A source close to the process told media outlets that a preliminary agreement was reached with Trump on the ethics point, though Democrats had not yet seen the text. The White House and the offices of the senators involved did not confirm the details. The same source indicated a draft could be released at any moment.

The pending dispute revolves around how much officials and political figures can benefit from cryptocurrencies while holding public office. That is a sensitive issue given Trump's ties to his own memecoins and his family's involvement in World Liberty Financial.