A Reuters poll of 104 economists sees no July Fed hike, but Polymarket gives it 20% odds. Nine of 18 Fed officials want a rate rise before 2027, pressuring Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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The Reuters poll of 104 economists produced a unanimous view: the Federal Reserve will hold its target rate at 3.50%-3.75% when the FOMC meets on July 28-29. The survey, conducted July 17-21, found 78 of those economists expecting no change through the end of 2026.
Prediction markets showed a different picture. Polymarket gave the July meeting a roughly 20% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. Broader market-implied probabilities for at least one hike by year-end stood at 57-61%.
The disconnect between the economist poll and the betting market has been a feature of the 2026 cycle. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has held the current rate since early this year. The Fed's dot plot, however, showed nine of 18 officials anticipating a rate rise before 2027.
Bitcoin and Ethereum both fell through July. Treasury yields climbed and rate-hike probabilities ticked higher over the same period. Data from Polymarket and major exchanges showed a correlation: days when hike odds rose by 5 percentage points or more saw Bitcoin down 2-3% on average.
The 78 economists who forecast a steady rate through year-end cited ongoing inflationary pressures, the Reuters poll reported. The Fed's own projections left room for action: nine dot-plot dots pointed to a hike, meaning a simple majority of the committee could shift.
The July 29 decision is the next test. The dot plot and the statement are due at 2 p.m. that day. crypto market analysis
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