Polymarket Bets on S&P 500 Rebound Ahead of Fed Decision

The S&P 500 closed down 0.57% on Tuesday, settling at 7,511.35. Polymarket traders see a different path for Wednesday. Their June 17 contract assigns a 78% probability that the index opens higher.

That morning’s catalyst is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets expect policymakers to leave rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. The real focus is on the economic projections and the press conference. Traders want to see if the dot plot pushes rate cuts further into 2026 or holds room for a September move. A steady rate without hawkish dot shifts would likely give equities a bid, several futures traders said.

Geopolitical tailwinds are also in play. The U.S. and Iran reached an agreement to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That deal, announced Monday, has helped pull crude oil lower. Lower energy costs feed into a more favorable inflation outlook and support equity valuations. Investors are also watching May retail sales and pending home sales data due this week. CarMax reports before the opening bell Wednesday. The used-car retailer's results could offer a read on consumer spending.