Phillips 66 scored 52 on AlphaScala's Alpha Score, the highest among S&P 500 energy stocks. Valero scored 40, Williams 51. Earnings season will test the rankings.
Phillips 66 earned the highest growth grade among S&P 500 energy stocks. Valero Energy placed second. Williams Companies landed third. The ranking comes from AlphaScala's Alpha Score, a composite measure of revenue expansion, earnings momentum, and reinvestment rates. Phillips 66 scored 52 out of 100. Valero scored 40. Williams scored 51. All three carry a "Mixed" label, meaning the data does not strongly signal overweight or underweight conviction.
The growth leadership puts Phillips 66 in a familiar spot. It is the top performer on trajectory metrics. That status can be a liability if the broader sector shifts south. Refining margins drive earnings for both Phillips 66 and Valero. Williams, a midstream operator, relies on fee-based transport and storage volumes, insulating it from crude price swings. The risk for PSX: its higher growth grade may already be priced into the stock. The Alpha Score of 52 sits above VLO's 40 but below the 60 threshold that would indicate stronger conviction. A 52 says the trend is favorable. It does not say the margin of safety is wide.
Valero's lower score reflects narrower earnings growth expectations. The company has heavier exposure to diesel and jet fuel, markets where demand growth has softened relative to gasoline. Williams sits in the middle with steady cash flow from natural gas pipelines but limited upside from commodity price appreciation. For traders, the ranking forces a choice. The top grower may be the most vulnerable to a sector-wide re-rating. Phillips 66's forward P/E sits near the top of its five-year range, according to data compiled by AlphaScala. The multiple leaves little room for earnings misses. Valero trades at a discount, partly because its growth grade lags. The market may be correctly pricing slower growth for VLO. It may also be underestimating Valero's ability to widen margins when refining utilization drops.
Williams offers a different trade-off. Its midstream assets generate predictable fees. The path to higher earnings depends on new pipeline projects and utility demand for natural gas. The Alpha Score of 51 suggests the stock is fairly valued against its own history. It is not cheap enough to bet on a re-rating.
Phillips 66 reports fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 12. Valero follows on Feb. 17. Williams reports later in the month. The growth grade data will face a real test against those numbers.
For more on Phillips 66, see the PSX stock page.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.