Occidental Petroleum shares are up 40% YTD as Reddit's 'very bullish' 88 sentiment clashes with analyst downgrades from Stephens, HSBC, and Jefferies.
Occidental Petroleum has become a case study in how far retail conviction can drift from professional caution. Shares closed at $57.50 Wednesday, up 39.8% year to date and 6.9% in the past week alone, sitting 14.8% below the 52-week high. Reddit's aggregate sentiment score for Occidental is currently pinned at 88, a "very bullish" reading held across all 10 measured intervals this week. Wall Street sees the same setup and shrugs.
Almost the entire retail signal traces back to a single r/options post titled "Oil is going to $150+ OXY $55 Jan 15th 2027 Calls." It climbed to 228 upvotes and 92 comments before losing traction Wednesday. The thesis is straightforward crude speculation rather than a fundamental case. It landed as Brent pushed above $94 on U.S. strikes against Iranian targets and Strait of Hormuz tensions.
The bullish framing does rest on real business milestones. Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.06 beat the $0.58 consensus by a wide margin. Principal debt fell to $13.3 billion from $20.8 billion, funded by the OxyChem sale to Berkshire Hathaway that closed January 2. The dividend rose to $0.26 per share, up more than 8% and doubled over four years.
The sell side is not buying the euphoria. The consensus target is $64.26, with the rating split leaning neutral. In the past two weeks, Stephens cut its target to $69 from $73, HSBC to $68 from $73, and Jefferies trimmed to $56. Mizuho still expects a 6% downward bias to Q2 Street EBITDAX and cash flow estimates. On a trailing basis, Occidental trades at a P/E near 77, though the forward multiple compresses to 10. The bull case hinges on crude cooperating.
Chevron runs the same Permian playbook with a higher dividend yield and none of the Buffett-associated retail mystique. That is exactly why Occidental's Reddit crowd keeps piling in. Former CEO Vicki Hollub disposed of 74,178 shares at nearly $59 on June 1, the largest insider sale in the recent window. Retail is trading a $150 oil narrative. Insiders and analysts are trading the next earnings report.
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