OPEC+ expected to vote on September output hike of 188,000 bpd as natural gas stays bearish below $2.756. WTI tests pivot at $82.89. All eyes on August OPEC+ meeting.
Alpha Score of 50 reflects moderate overall profile with poor momentum, poor value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
OPEC+ is expected to vote at its next meeting in early August to raise production by 188,000 barrels per day in September, completing the planned roll-out of 1.65 million bpd of voluntary cuts announced in 2023, delegates said. The alliance is likely to pause additional output increases from October through December, leaving roughly 2 million bpd of broader cuts in place while members negotiate new quotas for 2027, sources indicated.
On the demand side, U.S. commercial crude stockpiles rose 2.0 million barrels in the week ended July 17, the Energy Information Administration said. Refinery utilization held above 96%, supporting summer fuel demand. The EIA sees global liquids production staying at 101.9 million bpd in 2026 before rising again in 2027.
Natural gas fundamentals are supported by expanding LNG infrastructure. Global LNG trade hit a record in 2025, the EIA said. Mexico began shipments from its new Energia Costa Azul terminal last month, adding 0.4 billion cubic feet per day of capacity and tripling the country's export capability. Uncertainty about shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has kept global supply expectations tight.
Technically, natural gas remains under pressure. The front-month contract traded at $2.692, below the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, which sit at $2.874 and $2.956. The relative strength index has fallen to 28, in oversold territory, suggesting a potential near-term correction, according to analysis by Arslan, a finance MBA and behavioral finance expert. Resistance is at $2.756 and $2.816, with $2.897 as a secondary barrier. Support lies at $2.648 and $2.589. Natural gas stays bearish below $2.756; a break above that level could trigger a move toward $2.816, while a break below $2.648 opens the path to $2.589 and $2.525, Arslan said.
WTI crude bounced off support at $77.96 and is testing the pivot at $82.89, where the 50- and 100-day EMAs converge at $83.72 and $83.37. The RSI at 47 indicates momentum is turning but not yet bullish, Arslan said. Resistance is at $82.89 and $84.00, with $86.21 as a further target. Support is at $80.00 and $77.96. WTI remains bearish below $82.89; a break above could push toward $84.00 and $86.21, while a failure at $80.00 opens the path to $77.96.
Brent crude bounced off support at $80.61 but remains below the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at $85.68, which acts as immediate resistance. The 50- and 100-day EMAs at $88.32 and $88.37 are still above price, keeping the trend bearish. The RSI rose to 43, showing selling pressure easing, Arslan said. Resistance is at $85.68 and $88.81, with $91.33 beyond. Support is at $82.00 and $80.61. Brent stays bearish below $85.68; a break above could lead to $88.81, while a failure at $82.00 opens the way to $80.61.
In other markets, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) holds an Alpha Score of 46 out of 100, reflecting mixed sentiment. The PLTR stock page is available for further detail. For more on natural gas positioning, see our earlier analysis of 207,000 short contracts facing heat as front-month holds support.
Prepared with AlphaScala editorial tooling from the source reporting linked above. Indexable analysis may include a cited Alpha Score value. Publishing checks screen each story before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.