OPEC cut its 2026 oil demand growth forecast for the third straight month. WTI stalls below $80 resistance as natural gas holds between $2.85 and $2.94.
Alpha Score of 53 reflects moderate overall profile with moderate momentum, weak value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
OPEC cut its 2026 oil demand growth forecast for the third month in a row, lowering the estimate to 780,000 barrels per day. The group sees consumption rising by 1.94 million bpd in 2027 once geopolitical tensions ease, according to its monthly report.
Global crude output from OPEC and its allies climbed to 36.28 million bpd in June as Gulf Arab members gradually raised production. Total global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June to 98.8 million bpd, though output still trails pre-war figures by 9.4 million barrels daily, IEA data show. The world added 21 million barrels of crude this month as shipments across the Hormuz Strait resumed on a partial basis.
The IEA forecasts global gas demand dropping 0.5% in 2026 as LNG shipping remains in a lull after the Hormuz disruption. The strait handled 20% of the world's LNG shipments before the June ceasefire agreement, which has brought some tanker transits back.
Natural gas sits at $2.89, stuck between $2.85 support and $2.94 resistance. The small candlesticks of late reflect uncertainty from both buyers and sellers. A descending trendline continues to cap the price, with the 50-day EMA at $3.01 and the 100-day EMA at $3.08 providing overhead resistance. RSI is at 39, negative but not oversold, suggesting sellers still hold momentum. A break above $2.94 targets $3.00; a break below $2.85 targets $2.76.
WTI crude trades near $79.38 after rallying from a $66.83 low. The price is struggling to clear the $80.17 resistance area. Small candlesticks with long wicks signal uncertainty after the strong move. WTI stays above a rising trendline, with the 50-day EMA at $75.62 and the 100-day EMA at $75.12 both providing support. The 0.382 Fibonacci level at $77.05 is the first support; the next is $73.15. A move above $80.17 targets the 0.618 Fib level at $83.37. RSI hovers around 60, easing from overbought territory. A break below $77.05 would weaken the structure.
Brent crude trades around $84.47 after breaking out of a longer-term downtrend channel, taking out the 0.50 Fib level at $84.07. Price has consolidated just above that level, with buyers defending against short-term profit-taking. Brent sits comfortably above the 50-day EMA at $80.14 and the 100-day EMA at $79.27. Support is at $84.07, then $80.83. Resistance is at $87.34. RSI is at 59, still bullish but showing reduced momentum. Holding above $84.07 keeps the bullish view intact; a break below $80.83 would neutralise it.
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