OPEC Cuts 2026 Demand Outlook as Oil Supply Rises

OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 for the third straight month. The cartel now expects demand to rise by 780,000 barrels a day, down from an earlier estimate of 970,000 bpd. For 2027, OPEC projects growth of 1.94 million bpd.

Supply is moving in the opposite direction. OPEC+ crude production reached 36.28 million bpd in June, up about 3 million bpd from May as Gulf producers restored output after disruptions. The International Energy Agency reported that global oil supply hit 98.8 million bpd in June, an increase of 4.1 million bpd. Still, supply remains below pre-conflict levels, and Middle East risks persist.

In the natural gas market, U.S. working storage stood at 2,922 billion cubic feet, 175 Bcf above the five-year average but 23 Bcf below last year's level. The Energy Information Administration forecasts U.S. LNG exports will average 17.4 Bcf a day in 2026, supported by new export capacity.