Chevron and Occidental make up 13% of Berkshire Hathaway's equity portfolio. A winding-down Iran conflict is removing the oil risk premium. Greg Abel faces the same dilemma Warren Buffett had: trim or hold. The 13F will tell.
Berkshire Hathaway held roughly 13% of its equity portfolio in Chevron and Occidental Petroleum at the end of the first quarter. Chevron alone was about 9%, regulatory filings show.
The positions made sense when the Iran conflict kept a floor under crude by threatening supply routes. With diplomatic talks progressing and the war de-escalating, that floor is getting softer.
Oil slipped modestly after the latest round of negotiations. Traders said the real pressure comes if a formal ceasefire materialises, which could unwind the risk premium built into forward prices since late 2025. Lower crude means lower cash flow and thinner buyback capacity for both producers. Chevron and Occidental both fell in the session following the news.
This is not a straight-line story. OPEC+ production policy and U.S. shale output matter more for the medium-term supply balance than any single geopolitical flashpoint. Iran itself holds spare capacity that could return online, a process that would take months. The premium now fading was never the dominant driver of oil prices – just an extra tailwind that lifted expectations.
AlphaScala’s metrics show the market is not pricing a decisive shift either way. BRK.B carries an Alpha Score of 51 out of 100, a Mixed label that suggests no clear directional edge. CVX scores 42, also Mixed. The underlying businesses still offer value, the Iran-risk catalyst was already partly discounted.
The question for Berkshire’s new CEO Greg Abel is whether to trim before the premium fully evaporates. Buffett himself reduced the Chevron stake in prior quarters, signalling a willingness to lock in gains when the setup changes. Abel has not indicated any shift. Berkshire’s position size makes selling into a falling price difficult without moving the market.
The next concrete signal comes in mid-August, when Berkshire files its 13F for the second quarter. Those filings will show whether the firm held steady or began to pare back. Until then, the market guesses whether 13% of the portfolio still belongs in oil stocks with the Iran risk receding.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.