Oil pangs resurface for rupee, options market gauge signals bearish bias

The rupee's options market is signalling a bearish turn. The risk-reversal skew, which measures the cost of dollar calls relative to rupee puts, widened over the past two sessions, traders said. The move reflects rising demand for hedges against rupee weakness. Oil prices have edged higher, adding to the import bill for India, the world's third-largest crude consumer. The rupee itself has stayed near 83.50 against the dollar, a level the RBI has defended through intermittent dollar sales. The options market's shift suggests traders expect the central bank to allow some depreciation rather than fight the trend. The next data point is the weekly oil inventory report, due Wednesday. The forex market analysis page tracks positioning and sentiment.