
The US and Iran are back at the negotiating table, sending oil lower. The same red lines on enrichment remain. Shiptraffic data shows limited improvement through the Strait.
The US and Iran are back at the negotiating table, two months after a ceasefire memorandum collapsed within three weeks. President Donald Trump said there is "a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearisation." He added that nuclear talks would begin "tomorrow afternoon."
Oil prices fell Monday. Bond yields eased. US stocks nudged higher. The pattern mirrors the earlier episode, when a Hormuz reopening deal briefly calmed energy markets before negotiations stalled.
The Associated Press reported that Trump's proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz would include the US lifting its naval blockade on Iran. The AP source said no agreement has been reached yet. Mediation efforts are ongoing.
The dollar slipped against the yen and Swiss franc as traders shifted into riskier assets, several traders said.
Shiptracking data show limited improvement in traffic through the strait. On July 29, LNG carrier transits resumed after a two-week pause. The number of vessels crossing in recent days has averaged only 10-15 per day, far below pre-war levels. Traders said any reopening would not restore the old volume.
The two sides never moved past stage four or five of the earlier negotiation framework, according to reports from the first round. The same red lines remain on uranium enrichment and stockpile limits. Those issues have blocked agreement for more than a decade. Iran's leverage is the strait itself. As long as Tehran controls the chokepoint, it can afford to delay, analysts said.
The cycle of ceasefire, collapse, and renewed talks serves Iran's strategy of running out the clock, analysts said.
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