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Oil Elliott Wave Structure Suggests Further Losses Below $76.73
Crude oil's impulsive wave from $109.62 targets a break below $76.73. The bearish count remains intact as long as the $109.62 pivot holds.
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Oil's Elliott Wave Setup Points to More Downside
Crude oil futures ($CL_F) have been tracing a corrective pattern since the war-driven spike to $119.48 in early 2026. The initial impulsive decline to $76.73 on March 11, 2026, likely completed wave (A) of a larger bearish sequence. After a multi-month triangle consolidation that peaked at $109.62 in wave (B), the market has resumed lower in wave (C).
The Elliott Wave count from the $109.62 high shows a clear five-wave structure lower. Wave ((i)) ended at $105.65, wave ((ii)) corrected to $109.2, and wave ((iii)) extended to $96.94. The subsequent wave ((iv)) bounce stopped at $102.66. The current leg, wave ((v)), is expected to push to new lows, completing wave 1 of a higher degree. Once that wave 1 finishes, a corrective wave 2 rally in three or seven swings should follow before the broader downtrend resumes.
Key Levels and Timeline
The immediate risk is a break below the $76.73 low. That would confirm the bearish count and open the door to further losses. As long as the $109.62 pivot holds, every rally is expected to fail in three, seven, or eleven swings. The structure suggests a mature bearish cycle, with near-term odds skewed toward continued weakness rather than a sustained recovery.