
Crude oil's impulsive wave from $109.62 targets a break below $76.73. The bearish count remains intact as long as the $109.62 pivot holds.
Crude oil futures ($CL_F) have been tracing a corrective pattern since the war-driven spike to $119.48 in early 2026. The initial impulsive decline to $76.73 on March 11, 2026, likely completed wave (A) of a larger bearish sequence. After a multi-month triangle consolidation that peaked at $109.62 in wave (B), the market has resumed lower in wave (C).
The Elliott Wave count from the $109.62 high shows a clear five-wave structure lower. Wave ((i)) ended at $105.65, wave ((ii)) corrected to $109.2, and wave ((iii)) extended to $96.94. The subsequent wave ((iv)) bounce stopped at $102.66. The current leg, wave ((v)), is expected to push to new lows, completing wave 1 of a higher degree. Once that wave 1 finishes, a corrective wave 2 rally in three or seven swings should follow before the broader downtrend resumes.
The immediate risk is a break below the $76.73 low. That would confirm the bearish count and open the door to further losses. As long as the $109.62 pivot holds, every rally is expected to fail in three, seven, or eleven swings. The structure suggests a mature bearish cycle, with near-term odds skewed toward continued weakness rather than a sustained recovery.
Traders watching oil should note that the wave count is a framework, not a guarantee. The real test is whether price respects the $76.73 level. A decisive break would shift the focus to the next support zone, while a failure to break could signal a truncation or a change in the count.
A rally above $109.62 would invalidate the current wave count and suggest that the triangle was a continuation pattern, not a corrective wave (B). That would flip the bias to neutral or bullish. Until then, the path of least resistance is lower. The corrective wave 2 bounce, when it arrives, should be treated as a selling opportunity within the larger downtrend.
A fast break below $76.73 on high volume would confirm the impulsive wave structure and likely accelerate selling. That would also drag down oil-sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, and could weigh on inflation expectations, giving central banks more room to ease. The forex market analysis section tracks these cross-asset linkages.
For now, the bearish count is intact. The next decision point is the wave ((v)) low. If it holds above $76.73, the market may consolidate further. If it breaks, the downtrend has room to run.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.