
Oil gains on Iran tensions; Kospi jumps 3.5% on chip rally; USD steady ahead of CPI. North Korea launches missile; Trump considers capital gains tax relief.
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East showed no sign of easing. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States changed its behaviour and accepted Iran's conditions. Fresh reports emerged of vessels targeted in the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Gulf of Oman, extending a pattern of attacks beyond the Strait of Hormuz itself.
President Trump offered a different assessment. He told reporters after a trip to Ohio that matters with Iran are going fine, absolutely fine. Pressed on whether that suggested he trusted Tehran, he said he remained the last person who would trust Iran, citing a pattern of broken commitments. He claimed the United States currently holds total control over the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Iran lacks control and that the US effectively owns the waterway. He said Iran might eventually attempt something, in which case it would be met with force. He characterised the current US position as a strong one. Those remarks stand in contrast to the reported situation on the ground, where shipping through the strait remains severely curtailed and attacks on vessels have continued in the surrounding waters.
Separately, a private survey of US crude inventories pointed to a substantially larger build than expected. American Petroleum Institute data showed crude stockpiles rose by just over 9 million barrels in the week to August 7, against expectations for a roughly half a million barrel draw. The large miss will be tested against official Energy Information Administration figures due Wednesday morning in the US.
In Asian equities, Japan's Nikkei traded close to flat as investors awaited the US Consumer Price Index release and further clarity on the Middle East situation. South Korea's Kospi jumped around 3.5% on a rally in chipmakers, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both surging on strong signals of AI infrastructure demand. The Korea Exchange later activated a sidecar mechanism on the Kospi after KOSPI 200 futures rose 5%. In fixed income, Japan's two year government bond yield advanced 2 basis points to 1.63%, its highest level since May 1995.
Elsewhere, North Korea launched a short range ballistic missile toward the Sea of Japan, the second such test this week. In Washington, Trump is reportedly considering capital gains tax relief ahead of the midterm elections, including inflation indexing of capital gains and a higher exclusion threshold on home sales, currently set at $250,000 for individuals and $500,000 for married couples. Indexing would tax only real, inflation adjusted gains rather than nominal ones. For example, a 50% nominal gain with 20% inflation over the holding period would be taxed on the residual appreciation only. That change would lower the effective tax burden on long term holdings of equities and real estate and could support asset prices and trading activity. Any such measures remain policy signals rather than settled law. Direct rate changes or an expanded exclusion would require congressional legislation. Administrative inflation indexing would likely face significant legal challenge.
In currency markets, major pairs traded in narrow ranges. The US dollar showed modest strength ahead of the CPI report due at 8.30am US Eastern time.
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