
Strait of Hormuz traffic has fallen to its lowest since the conflict peak, with oil and LNG shipments at a standstill. Iran says any reopening depends on security.
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to single digits per day, the lowest since the peak of the conflict, as renewed US-Iran military strikes reversed a brief ceasefire. The US reimposed a naval blockade at the other end of the strait, effectively resetting the ceasefire deal signed late last month.
Verified crossings dropped to fewer than 10 vessels per day since July 18, shiptracking data show. Even when accounting for shadow fleet traffic, the count was 13–19 vessels per day over the weekend. Oil and LNG shipments have largely halted. Only one very large crude carrier (VLCC) has managed to transit the strait since July 18, and no LNG tankers have crossed since July 16, a major setback for Qatar's exports.
Iran said any decision to reopen the strait depends on security considerations. The country is pushing the onus back on the US to offer concessions on oil sanctions and frozen assets before allowing a significant return of traffic. The pattern mirrors the previous ceasefire, when Iran allowed only a few vessels through while buying time for more concessions.
Trump is weighing either a renewed ceasefire deal or a full-scale military escalation, the latter looking unlikely ahead of the midterm elections. Even if a new ceasefire emerges, analysts expect it to follow the same script: Iran playing to the optics of a partial reopening while continuing to demand more US concessions.
The prolonged disruption keeps oil prices elevated and pressures oil-sensitive currencies such as the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar. For broader forex market coverage, see forex market analysis.
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