Brent crude climbed to $91.57 as Wall Street rallied. The ASX faces pressure from oil costs, while AGL's penalty reversal and Westgold's resource update reshape energy and mining plays.
Brent crude climbed 0.60% to $91.57 a barrel overnight, extending a run that has pushed the commodity to levels not seen since early 2024. The move comes as Wall Street rallied on easing Treasury yields, but the ASX faces a different calculus: higher oil prices pressure transport, refining, and consumer discretionary stocks while lifting energy producers.
The AFR forecasts a flat to lower open for the S&P/ASX 200 after it fell 16.20 points, or 0.18%, to 9,053.80 on Wednesday, slipping below its 20-day moving average.
Regulatory risk for energy retailers
A separate development reshapes the risk profile for Australian energy companies. The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) said it will repay AGL Energy $25 million in penalties after the full Federal Court upheld AGL Retail Energy's appeal. The original December 2024 penalty stemmed from alleged overcharging of Centrepay customers. The AER stated it took action in December 2022 because of the seriousness of the alleged conduct, which it said impacted a large number of customers including those experiencing vulnerability and financial hardship. The regulator added it is considering the judgment in the context of Federal Court proceedings against four Origin Energy subsidiaries launched in December 2025 for similar alleged breaches.
Mining and gold offset some pressure
Westgold Resources reported a 41% increase in ore reserves to 4.1 million ounces, achieved at a reserve addition cost of just $27 per ounce. The company also grew mineral resources by 8% to 14.4 million ounces after adjusting for non-core asset divestments of three million ounces. Gold, which tends to hold its value when oil-driven inflation rises, remains a relative haven in the current commodity mix. Westgold's update reinforces the supply-side strength in Australian gold, even as the broader market grapples with higher energy costs.
Earnings season adds cross-currents
Super Retail Group posted a 3.2% sales increase to $4.2 billion. CEO Paul Bradshaw said FY26 delivered a solid result, achieving record sales despite headwinds including geopolitical instability in the Middle East, unfavourable weather, and increasing interest rate pressure on households. Cleanaway Waste Management grew gross revenue 13.5% to $4,371.3 million, supported by the Contract Resources and Citywide Waste acquisitions. Heartland Group Holdings reported net profit after tax of $93.2 million, up from $38.8 million a year earlier, driven by margin expansion and strengthened asset quality.
What rising oil means for the ASX
Higher crude prices squeeze margins for airlines, logistics firms, and any business with significant fuel exposure. On the other hand, energy producers like Woodside and Santos benefit directly. The Australian dollar held at US$0.712, offering some buffer for importers but not enough to offset the crude move. Iron ore edged down 0.12% to $95.17 a tonne in Singapore, adding a drag on the materials sector. US natural gas futures ticked up 0.25% to $2.7830 per gigajoule.
For traders watching the energy complex, the key question is whether Brent can sustain above $90. A break above $92 would test the next resistance level near $95, a zone that last held in October 2023. The ASX's energy sector, which has lagged the broader market this year, may find a catalyst if oil stays elevated through the next OPEC+ meeting scheduled for early April.
Prepared with AlphaScala editorial tooling from the source reporting linked above. Indexable analysis may include a cited Alpha Score value. Publishing checks screen each story before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.