Retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor warns Middle East tensions could push oil to $150, deepening a downturn and pressuring crypto as a risk asset. No specific price targets for Bitcoin, XRP, XLM.
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Retired U.S. Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor warned that escalating Middle East tensions could push crude oil to $150 a barrel, a move that would deepen a global downturn and weigh on risk-sensitive assets including cryptocurrencies. Macgregor said in a YouTube interview with analyst Levi Rietveld that "in a couple of months" oil could reach that level and potentially rise further.
Macgregor argued that investors will avoid rebuilding oil and gas infrastructure while regional instability persists. He also said a 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury note would threaten the broader financial structure, calling the bond market a key constraint on prolonged military spending.
Rietveld linked that scenario to crypto's usual sensitivity to macro risk, a pattern covered in crypto market analysis. Digital assets are a higher-risk category than major equity benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, he said, meaning a sharp rise in oil prices or bond yields could trigger risk-off positioning. The video offered no price targets for Bitcoin, XRP or XLM, but the framing is consistent with how crypto has traded during periods of market stress.
Macgregor also argued that U.S. military capacity and financing are under strain, citing limited missile inventories and slower production rates relative to Iran's unmanned systems and missile manufacturing. He portrayed China and Russia as having strong strategic interests in Iran, including China's oil purchases and the country's role in Belt and Road transport links. Several of Macgregor's broader political assertions are contested and were not supported with evidence in the video.
For investors, the more immediate relevance is the possibility of disrupted energy flows and a renewed inflation shock. Rietveld said U.S. oil producers could benefit from higher prices, while consumers and energy-intensive businesses absorb the costs. He also said major oil companies have raised prices sharply, though no financial statements or commodity-market data were shown to substantiate that claim.
Rietveld said a sustained oil spike could strengthen the dollar and pressure speculative assets first. If geopolitical tensions ease and financial conditions loosen, he expects crypto's risk appetite to recover, noting that XRP and XLM could also be affected by broader market moves. The video offered no price targets for Bitcoin, XRP or XLM, nor did it include data showing a direct relationship between the current conflict and crypto prices.
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