Oil at $100 Keeps Crypto on Iran Diplomacy Watch

Brent crude is holding at $100 per barrel after a 2.5% gain in the prior session, and stalled US-Iran nuclear talks mean the oil risk premium is not fading. For crypto traders, that creates a persistent macro headwind that has already shown up in Bitcoin's price movements.

The chokepoint catalyst is concrete. The Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes – was closed on March 4. Since then, Brent has surged from about $72 per barrel in late February to above $112 by the end of March, a gain exceeding 55%. Prices briefly pushed past $120 earlier in 2026 before settling into the current volatile range near $100. The EIA projects that Brent averages will stay above $100 in the near term as long as tensions persist.

Why Oil's Stubborn Ceiling Matters for Bitcoin

The simple read: rising oil prices feed inflation expectations, which pressure risk assets including crypto. That is true but too broad. The better market read tracks the diplomatic dial between Washington and Tehran. Bitcoin has shown a consistent, measurable reaction to the same headlines that move crude.

When productive signals emerged from earlier rounds of talks in March, Bitcoin climbed above $70,000, according to Polymarket analysis. In May, modest upticks in peace-deal odds corresponded with similar price upticks in crypto markets. The mechanism is not oil itself but the macro uncertainty premium: a disrupted Hormuz channel tightens global supply, boosts inflation expectations, and complicates Federal Reserve rate decisions. Risky duration assets – crypto among them – tend to compress when the macro fog thickens.

Bitcoin's Sensitivity to the Iran Signal

President Trump has described the talks as in their