Oil and Natural Gas: Supply Risks Mount as Prices Test Resistance

Natural gas futures traded at $2.89, below the 50-day moving average of $3.03 but above the 100-day at $2.88. The relative strength index sat at 41, indicating weak buying pressure. A close above $2.95 would open the path to $3.03 and $3.09, traders said. Support sits at $2.83, with further levels at $2.78 and $2.73.

WTI crude pulled back from $93.25 to around $90.60, testing the median line of its upward channel. The contract remains well above its 50-day exponential moving average at $87.09 and the 100-day at $83.66. The RSI cooled from overbought to 58. Resistance stands at $93.25, then $95.90 and $98.62. Support at $90.02, then $87.36.

Brent crude fell to $98.96 after hitting resistance at the 0% Fibonacci retracement of $101.84. Price holds above the 50- and 100-day moving averages. The RSI at 70 is rolling over from overbought territory. Resistance at $101.84, then $108.16 and $114.67. Support at $94.51 (23.6% Fib), then $89.81 and $85.96.

The longer-term outlook remains bullish for Brent as long as it stays above $94.51, chart watchers said. For WTI, a break below $90.00 could trigger a move to $87.36, where buyers are expected to defend the trend. Natural gas needs a close above $2.95 to shift the near-term picture. The next EIA storage report is due Thursday.