Forex▼ Bearish
NZ commodity prices fall 3.9% in July, biggest drop since 2022
Dairy led the ANZ commodity index's monthly slide, falling 6.5% in July. Casein rose 28.2% YoY. A firmer kiwi could cut export returns further into August.
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New Zealand export commodity prices fell 3.9% in July, the steepest monthly decline since November 2022. Dairy led the drop in the ANZ World Commodity Price Index, a monthly measure of what New Zealand's exporters receive. The index remains up 0.5% from a year earlier.
Dairy, the index's largest component, fell 6.5% on the month and now sits 11.3% below year-ago levels. ANZ said dairy was the main driver of the decline. Whole milk powder dropped 5.3%, with strong global supplies weighing on prices as anticipated, according to ANZ Research. Sales tied to New Zealand's upcoming production season added further supply; the slide, ANZ said, reflected those seasonal volumes.
Casein ran the other way. Prices are up 28.2% year on year. Caseins and milk protein concentrates are increasingly in demand as high-value protein ingredients, ANZ said, with supply not keeping pace.
The meat and fibre index slipped 3.0%, its first monthly decline since May 2025. Wool fell 12.0% in July even with supply tight. Buyers have turned more cautious than at any point over the past year, ANZ said, and the wool index still holds a 69.8% gain on the year. Overseas beef prices lost 4.4% on competition from South American exporters; the beef index remains up 16.5% on the year, supported by tight global supplies.