Nuclear Power's 2026 Reality: One New Plant Outside China

The 2023 pledge by more than 20 countries to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050 has produced exactly one final investment decision: two reactors at Sizewell C in the UK. Construction is expected to start in 2027, with commercial operation in the late 2030s at best. After that, no large plants are even on the drawing board in the UK. Rolls-Royce has a proposal for some half-size reactors. Those don't have a prototype yet.

France is a few steps behind. Three sites have been identified, each with two reactors. None has reached a final investment decision. The most likely candidate is at Penly. Even that is doubtful. Once Emmanuel Macron's term finishes in 2027, the political push is likely to dissipate.

Nothing at all is happening with large-scale new nuclear in the US. Proposals to complete the half-finished VC Summer plant in South Carolina have gone nowhere. The planned restart of the Palisades plant has missed multiple deadlines. The Trump Administration recently announced an $18.7 billion loan program aimed at building ten AP1000 reactors. This is widely seen as theatre. A few pilot small reactors have construction underway. All such efforts have failed until now.