Senior admin official says no MoU approved despite Trump's earlier optimism. Frozen assets principal hurdle. Dollar, oil await next catalyst for direction.
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President Donald Trump did not finalize a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran during a nearly two-hour meeting in the White House Situation Room, according to a senior administration official familiar with the deliberations. The official said no final approval was given for a new deal. That outcome contrasts with Trump’s own recent public signals that a framework was largely agreed and only procedural steps remained.
For forex traders positioning around geopolitical risk, the non-decision leaves the dollar and crude oil trading on reputation rather than fact. The market is stuck in a wait-for-catalyst mode until Trump signs or walks away.
The meeting convened senior national security and foreign policy officials. Despite the lengthy discussion, Trump held back from signing off on any accord. The administration believes negotiations are approaching a critical stage, yet several important issues remain unresolved, according to the official.
Trump had publicly outlined what he described as elements of a possible agreement involving the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear activities, and broader regional security arrangements. The official’s account makes clear that while progress may exist, negotiators have not bridged all differences.
The disclosure also comes amid conflicting public statements from Washington and Tehran. Iranian officials have insisted that no final agreement has been concluded and have emphasized that current discussions remain focused primarily on ending the conflict rather than negotiating long-term nuclear arrangements.
At the same time, both sides have signaled that diplomatic efforts have intensified in recent weeks. Negotiators are working through issues involving regional security, maritime access in the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, frozen assets, and the sequencing of commitments by both governments.
The most significant outstanding point is the question of frozen Iranian assets. The issue of when and under what conditions Iranian funds held abroad would be unfrozen has emerged as the principal obstacle in the final phase of negotiations.
Iranian officials have repeatedly said that access to blocked assets and broader sanctions relief are essential components of any agreement. US officials have debated the political and strategic implications of releasing funds to Tehran.
The administration’s assessment contrasts with some of Trump’s recent public statements, which suggested that a framework had largely been agreed. The official’s account indicates that while substantial progress may have been made, negotiators have yet to bridge all remaining differences.
The White House remains optimistic that an agreement is close. The senior official said negotiations have not yet reached the point where Trump is prepared to sign off on a final deal. Until the remaining disputes over Iranian funds are resolved, the prospect of a comprehensive US-Iran agreement remains uncertain.
Iranian officials insist that discussions remain focused on ending the conflict. Both sides appear closer to an agreement than at any point in recent months, yet still divided on several issues that could determine whether a final accord is achieved.
For forex market participants, the lack of a decision keeps a risk premium bid on both oil and the safe-haven dollar. A finalized Iran deal would likely reduce geopolitical risk, weighing on crude prices and weakening the USD as safe-haven flows unwind. That scenario would support risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD, NZD, and emerging market FX.
Conversely, a collapse in negotiations or renewed threats from either side would reinforce the dollar bid and lift oil, pressuring currencies tied to energy imports. The EUR/USD profile remains sensitive to US-Iran developments because of the eurozone’s reliance on Middle East crude and the trade channel.
Key assets to watch:
For traders using position size calculators or pip calculators, the current environment argues for wider stops given the binary event risk around the next White House statement.
The forex correlation matrix and currency strength meter can help identify which pairs are most sensitive to the shifting risk premium. A sudden change in the correlation between oil and the dollar would signal a regime shift.
What reduces the risk: A concrete announcement of frozen asset release or a signed MoU that includes verifiable Hormuz guarantees. Any statement from Trump that explicitly claims a deal is done would trigger a sharp risk-on move: oil would gap lower, the dollar would sell off, and EM currencies would rally.
What makes the setup more dangerous: A public breakdown in talks, an Iranian denial that negotiations are close, or a new US security threat against Iran. Even a lack of progress for several weeks would keep the market in limbo, sustaining the current risk premium.
Traders should track the White House press calendar and any official statements from Iran’s foreign ministry. The next concrete catalyst is the release of the US administration’s own internal timeline, which the senior official hinted could come within days.
For broader context on how geopolitical events feed into currency markets, see the AlphaScala forex market analysis and the latest coverage on Why the Hormuz Blockade Lift Leaves the Dollar Trade Incomplete. The EUR/USD profile remains a key reference for dollar-sensitive positioning.
The practical takeaway: the market is stuck in a wait-for-catalyst mode. Until Trump signs or walks away, the dollar and oil are trading on reputation rather than fact. A prudent approach is to size positions for a binary outcome and watch the asset freeze issue as the leading indicator.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.