Nifty ends 7-session slide as 24,000 holds, global yields ease

Nifty snapped its longest losing streak in nearly 11 months on Thursday, ending seven straight sessions of decline in a broad-based rebound. The trigger came from an unexpected quarter: a US Treasury intervention that pulled long-term bond yields lower and weakened the dollar. That revived risk appetite across global markets.

"The intervention has dragged down the dollar, which, along with a firmer rupee and easing yield pressures, boosted attractiveness to EMs," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited. He added that "the market's optimism remains guarded as stubbornly high crude oil prices continue to cast a shadow over inflation and corporate profitability."

The Nifty 50 closed at 24,231.85, up 153.55 points or 0.64 percent. The Sensex gained 628.04 points or 0.82 percent to settle at 77,537.72. The recovery came on a weekly expiry day, which kept intraday swings contained. Nifty traded in its tightest range since August 6, just 81 points between its intraday high of 24,265.15 and low. Buying emerged precisely around the psychologically significant 24,000 level, which now coincides with the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the previous upswing and an upward-sloping trendline connecting swing lows from April, June, and July.

Sectoral participation was broadly positive. Nifty Media led with a 2 percent gain. Realty followed at 1.4 percent. Auto, FMCG, IT, Private Banks, Pharma, and Infrastructure all advanced between 0.4 percent and 0.8 percent. PSU Banks were the notable laggard, ending marginally negative. Among Nifty 50 constituents, Eternal, Shriram Finance, and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the top gainers. Tata Consumer, Hindalco, and IndiGo ended lower. Gold-loan lenders gained 3 to 4 percent as bullion surged. Sugar stocks extended gains for a second straight session, rising up to 10 percent on firm domestic prices and festive demand expectations.

The broader market joined in. The Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.4 percent. The Nifty Smallcap 100 advanced 0.7 percent. Market breadth turned decisively positive, with the advance-decline ratio improving to 1.30. Within the Nifty 500 universe, 301 stocks closed in positive territory.

The Indian rupee snapped a three-day losing streak, gaining 5 paise to close at 95.70 against the dollar. The greenback slid to multi-month lows against major currencies. Spot USDINR has immediate support at 95.55 and resistance at 96.10.

Gold surged. MCX Gold gained around 2.3 percent to Rs 1,58,100. COMEX Gold climbed from around $4,390 to $4,485, supported by a weaker dollar and lower US Treasury yields. "The momentum remains positive as long as bullion sustains above key support levels," said Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities, noting MCX Gold's near-term range at Rs 1,57,000 to Rs 1,59,500. Brent crude remained elevated near $94 per barrel, with WTI around $86.6, as US-Iran tensions showed no sign of resolution. That keeps inflation and current account risks squarely on the radar.

The session also saw the release of the RBI's August Monetary Policy Committee minutes, which some research firms flagged as among the most hawkish in the past year. "5-6 members leaving the door open to future tightening," noted Sarvam Goel, Founder of Pocketful. "If inflation does not behave, a hike is on the table." No rate action was announced. The minutes reinforced that the central bank remains data-dependent heading into its next meeting on October 5 to 7, with crude prices and inflation prints the two key variables.

"Amid the prevailing uncertainty and elevated crude prices, we recommend maintaining a cautious stance on the index and focusing on selective stock-specific opportunities," said Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking. "Participants should prefer relatively stronger stocks and sectors while maintaining disciplined risk and position management."

For markets to build on Thursday's rebound, the Nifty will need to decisively clear the 24,300 to 24,375 resistance band, where the 50-day EMA also sits, to negate the prevailing short-term downtrend. A sustained close above 24,575 by week's end would further strengthen the technical structure and open the door toward 25,000 to 25,150. Until then, 24,000 to 24,050 is likely to hold as the floor. The broader near-term trajectory remains hostage to the direction of global bond yields, crude, and any developments in West Asia.