Fresh US strikes in Iran send crude higher, testing Nifty's hold above 24,000 on F&O expiry day. Key levels and confirmation triggers for traders.
Tuesday's open in Indian equities carried the weight of Monday's 1,073-point Sensex surge. The Nifty 50 opened at 24,004, down 12 points from the 24,031 close, as crude oil reversed sharply on fresh US military strikes in Southern Iran. The session also features a monthly Nifty F&O expiry, which can distort intraday signals beyond the underlying fundamentals.
Monday's rally followed optimism over US-Iran peace talks. President Trump noted negotiations were "proceeding nicely." That sentiment drove a 312-point gain in the Nifty and sent the Sensex up 1,073 points. It also allowed crude to fall sharply, with Brent dropping below the $93 mark.
Tuesday's action removed that tailwind. August Brent futures climbed 1.70% to $95.01 per barrel. July WTI rose 1.35% to $91.53. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, June crude futures were up 1.51% at ₹8,756. The trigger: a series of "self defence strikes" by the US in Southern Iran.
"Even though negotiations are continuing for an end to the West Asia crisis there are no indications of an imminent end to the conflict," said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. "The 'self defence strikes' by the US in Southern Iran has come as a dampener to the ongoing negotiations."
The naive read is that another crude spike hurts import-dependent India. The better read: the move reinforces a pattern where every peace-related dip in crude gets bought, and every escalation resets the risk premium. Markets have been rallying on each positive headline. The fundamental macro headwind – elevated oil – remains unresolved.
Practical rule: When a catalyst fades within 24 hours, treat the initial move as positioning-driven, not structural.
Monday's close above 24,000 was the first decisive breach of that level in the current cycle. It put pressure on Call writers at the 24,000 and 24,200 strikes, creating the potential for short covering in early Tuesday trade.
Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Direct, laid out the framework: "As long as Nifty sustains above 24,000, the index has the potential to advance towards 24,150–24,350 in the near term."
Immediate support sits at 23,800–23,875. Resistance is placed at 24,200–24,400. The range is tight, and the F&O expiry compresses it further.
Expiry-day positioning dominates price action. The open interest shifts are real. They reflect institutional roll trades and speculative gamma plays, not an endorsement of the underlying trend. A move above 24,200 on Tuesday could be the unwind of Call sellers, not fresh conviction. A move below 23,800 could be Put sellers defending premiums, not a wave of genuine selling.
Monthly expiries create optical moves that vanish the next session. Today's expiry for Nifty derivatives is followed by BSE expiry on Wednesday and a market holiday on Thursday. Three disjointed trading sessions in a row mean fragmented liquidity.
Tuesday's early sectoral action was mixed. Coal India led with a 1.55% gain to ₹465.10. ONGC rose 0.97% to ₹287.70. Infosys added 0.90% to ₹1,179.00. On the losing side, healthcare stocks took the hit: Max Healthcare fell 1.08% to ₹990.05, Apollo Hospitals dropped 1.00% to ₹8,320.00, and Sun Pharma declined 0.89% to ₹1,824.20.
On AlphaScala's proprietary scoring, Infosys carries a Moderate Alpha Score of 57, suggesting the earnings-driven story still has room against the crude headwind. Southern Company holds a Mixed Alpha Score of 47, reflecting its utility sector exposure.
Monday saw the PSU Bank index outperform with a 3.10% gain. Bank Nifty closed at 55,293, up 2.29%. It faces immediate resistance at 55,400–55,500. If crude stays elevated, banks with energy-linked loan exposure may face renewed scrutiny.
The setup is simple: as long as Nifty holds 24,000, the bullish case from Monday remains alive. Below 23,875, the breakout loses credibility.
The European Commission cut its 2026 Eurozone growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.2% and raised its inflation estimate to 3.0%, citing the Middle East conflict. That is a structural headwind that no single expiry session can resolve.
Until a clear ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough emerges, every crude dip will be bought and every spike will test the Nifty's ability to hold above 24,000. The market is pricing a binary outcome. Tuesday's price action suggests it is not ready to bet on the bullish side just yet.
On the institutional side, the pattern of DII buying outweighing FII flows continues. Monday's combined purchase of ₹4,678 crore was one of the largest single-day totals in recent weeks. That level of domestic support provides a floor. It cannot manufacture a breakout without a macro catalyst to back it.
For traders working the Nifty 24,000–24,200 range, the disciplined move is to wait for expiry to pass before establishing directional exposure. The levels are tight. The oil news is volatile. The holiday schedule will fragment any follow-through. Let the OI data settle. Then look for the next meaningful setup.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.