
The BNZ-BusinessNZ index rose to 50.6 from 48.0. The recovery is narrow, with Employment at 48.8. BNZ sees GDP growth near 2%.
New Zealand's services sector returned to expansion in June, the BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index showed. The index rose to 50.6 from 48.0 in May and 48.9 in April, the first reading above the 50.0 breakeven mark since January 2026.
BusinessNZ chief executive Katherine Rich said it was heartening to see the index edge back above breakeven after a lengthy stretch of contraction. She characterised the improvement as tentative, contrasting it with the more pronounced gain recorded this month in the Performance of Manufacturing Index. The parts of the services sector under the most pressure remain those most exposed to discretionary household spending, such as hospitality and personal services, where consumers are directing money toward essentials like fuel and food rather than optional purchases, Rich said.
Within the index, New Orders was the strongest sub-index at 53.0. Deliveries also moved into expansion territory at 51.2. Stocks/Inventories and Activity/Sales came in at 49.9 and 49.3 respectively. Employment, the weakest of the group, was at 48.8. Rich said the pattern shows the sector's return to growth remains narrowly based.
A return to sustained growth depends on consumer confidence rebuilding, Rich said. That is unlikely to happen while cost-of-living pressures remain as prominent as they currently are for households, she added.
The narrow breadth of the recovery means the New Zealand dollar remains sensitive to the next round of data, a dynamic visible on the currency strength meter.
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis offered a more upbeat assessment of the broader economic picture. He said the uplift in the services index, combined with the surge in the manufacturing index to 54.2, is enough to suggest economic growth should soon climb to around 2.0%. Toplis acknowledged this is not a spectacular figure. He described it as confirmation that the growth trend seen prior to the recent oil shock is now resuming.
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